As providers of third-party logistical services to more than 50 beauty brands, we’re sitting on, and have reviewed, tons of data. Here’s what we see on the horizon for the next 12 months.

1. The Modernization of Cosmetics Regulation Act of 2022 (MoCRA) introduced a new level of regulatory oversight that will require significant adjustments in beauty logistics operations due to product registration and recall requirements. Brands and their 3PLs must invest in technology, processes and training to ensure compliance, which will complicate their quest to maintain efficiency in logistics operations. Furthermore, additional regulatory oversight will increase costs and change resource allocation.

2. The natural beauty trend will make a big comeback. Consumers are demanding more and more clean, sustainable products; this, combined with the increasing need to comply with MoCRA will cause brands to shift to safer, more natural ingredients. The natural beauty trend is further supported by the rise of minimalism, which means less reliance on heavy makeup, contouring or extreme skincare routines. Instead, consumers are gravitating toward lightweight, multifunctional products that enhance, rather than mask, their features.

3. One-on-one personalization is gaining traction. AI and machine learning enable brands to offer personalized skincare and makeup recommendations through quizzes, apps or even skin-scanning devices, increasing their ability to customize beauty solutions for individual customers based on their unique skin types, tones and concerns. Companies like Prose and Function of Beauty already offer personalized hair care, while Curology tailors skincare products based on specific skin conditions.

4. Authenticity will increasingly be key to success for celebrity beauty brands, whether through the formulation process, the story behind the product, or how the celebrity engages with their audience. Consumers, particularly younger ones like Gen Z and Gen Alpha, value transparency, ethical practices and real engagement, and are more likely to trust brands that feel authentic.

5. Everything old is new again. Some Gen Z and Gen Alpha are reducing their dependency on technology, looking for real authenticity. They are becoming much less trusting of influencers, “official” celebrities or not. If a brand feels inauthentic—such as having unclear values, lackluster product quality or a celebrity who doesn’t seem to genuinely care about beauty— the brand is likely to decline or fail.

6. Prestige beauty will take a hit as buyers become more cost-conscious, no matter the company behind the brand. During tough times, lipstick has always been a steady buy, as people are more likely to treat themselves to lower-cost items. That will continue. However, it is unlikely that the high volume of self-care purchases that occurred during COVID-19 will happen again.

7. Beauty brand consolidation will gain even more traction in 2025 as large corporations seek to expand their portfolios, enhance innovation, and stay competitive. Driven by economies of scale, sustainability demands, digital transformation, and consumer preferences for niche and indie brands, mergers and acquisitions will remain a key strategy for growth and survival in the beauty industry.

8. Recycling will become more of a priority for beauty brands. Brands will partner with retailers to create recycling options, including onsite recycling centers. While the centers will take up “real estate,” retailers will benefit from additional traffic and special recycling promotions. Meanwhile, the brands will have a public relations win as a green company. 

Beauty is an ever-evolving market, sensitive to everything from color trends to celebrity scandals. Fortunately, this all leaves an enormous data trail that can point us in the direction of coming styles and the methods necessary to provide customer delight.

About the Author

Thom Campbell is the chief strategy officer at Capacity, a third-party logistics provider with facilities in New Jersey, California and Indiana. He has worked to grow Capacity since its earliest days alongside his co-founders. He held several roles, including leading client services, and currently oversees sales and marketing. Thom takes a special interest in attracting and retaining the people who make up Capacity’s extraordinarily passionate culture. Prior to Capacity, Campbell was with Morgan Stanley for 7 years, managing investment banking and investor relations for institutional mutual funds. Before joining Morgan Stanley, he was at Bottomline Technologies, implementing electronic payment systems for major financial institutions. Prior to that he worked at the American Institute of Chemical Engineers. Thom holds a degree in English from Princeton University. More info: www.capacityllc.om